Drivers of disease emergence and spread: Is wildlife to blame?

The global focus on wildlife as a major contributor to emerging pathogens and infectious diseases (EIDs) in humans and domestic animals is not based on field, experimental or dedicated research, but mostly on limited surveys of literature, opinion and the assumption that biodiversity harbours pathogens. The perceived and direct impacts of wildlife, from being a reservoir of certain human and livestock pathogens and as a risk to health, are frequently overstated when compared to the Global burden of disease statistics available from WHO, OIE and FAO. However organisms that evolve in wildlife species can and do spill-over into human landscapes and humans and domestic animal population and, where these organisms adapt to surviving and spreading amongst livestock and humans, these emerging infections can have significant consequences. Drivers for the spill-over of pathogens or evolution of organisms from wildlife reservoirs to become pathogens of humans and domestic animals are varied but almost without exception poorly researched. The changing demographics, spatial distribution and movements, associated landscape modifications (especially agricultural) and behavioural changes involving human and domestic animal populations are probably the core drivers of the apparent increasing trend in emergence of new pathogens and infectious diseases over recent decades

Macroscopic fe-simulation of residual stresses in thermo-mechanically processed steels considering phase transformation effects

Residual stresses are an important issue as they affect both the manufacturing processes as well as the performance of the final parts. Taking into account the whole process chain of hot forming, the integrated heat treatment provided by a defined temperature profile for cooling of the parts offers a great potential for the targeted adjustment of the desired residual stress state. However, in addition to elastic, plastic and linear thermal strain components, the complex material phenomena arising from phase transformation effects of the polymorphic steels have to be considered in order to predict the residual stresses. These transformation strains account for the plastic deformation at the phase boundary between the emerging and the parent phase. In addition, they are strongly related to the transformation induced plasticity (TRIP) phenomena which depend on the stress state. The aim of this study is the investigation of TRIP effects and their impact on residual stresses regarding the typical hot forming steels 1.7225 (DIN: 42CrMo4) and 1.3505 (DIN: 100Cr6) by means of an experimental-numerical approach. The TRIP behaviour of the materials under consideration is integrated into an FE simulation model in the commercial software Simufact.forming for the purpose of residual stress prediction. The experimental thermo-mechanical investigations are carried out using a quenching and forming dilatometer. These experiments are numerically modelled by means of FEM which allows TRIP coefficients to be determined phasespecifically by numerical identification. For validation of the improved FE-model, an experimental thermo-mechanical reference process is considered, in which cylindrical specimens with an eccentric hole are hot formed and subsequently cooled by different temperature routes. Finally, the numerical model is validated by means of a comparison between residual stress states determined with X-ray diffraction and predicted residual stresses from the simulation

Matrix geometries and fuzzy spaces as finite spectral triples

A class of real spectral triples that are similar in structure to a Riemannian manifold but have a finite-dimensional Hilbert space is defined and investigated, determining a general form for the Dirac operator. Examples include fuzzy spaces defined as real spectral triples. Fuzzy 2-spheres are investigated in detail, and it is shown that the fuzzy analogues correspond to two spinor fields on the commutative sphere. In some cases it is necessary to add a mass mixing matrix to the commutative Dirac operator to get a precise agreement for the eigenvalues.Comment: 39 pages, final versio

Inference in partially identified models with many moment inequalities using Lasso

This paper considers inference in a partially identified moment (in)equality model with many moment inequalities. We propose a novel two-step inference procedure that combines the methods proposed by Chernozhukov, Chetverikov and Kato (2018a) (CCK18, hereafter) with a first step moment inequality selection based on the Lasso. Our method controls asymptotic size uniformly, both in underlying parameter and data distribution. Also, the power of our method compares favorably with that of the corresponding two-step method in CCK18 for large parts of the parameter space, both in theory and in simulations. Finally, we show that our Lasso-based first step can be implemented by thresholding standardized sample averages, and so it is straightforward to implement.Comment: 1 figur

Interaction-induced chiral p_x \pm i p_y superfluid order of bosons in an optical lattice

The study of superconductivity with unconventional order is complicated in condensed matter systems by their extensive complexity. Optical lattices with their exceptional precision and control allow one to emulate superfluidity avoiding many of the complications of condensed matter. A promising approach to realize unconventional superfluid order is to employ orbital degrees of freedom in higher Bloch bands. In recent work, indications were found that bosons condensed in the second band of an optical chequerboard lattice might exhibit p_x \pm i p_y order. Here we present experiments, which provide strong evidence for the emergence of p_x \pm i p_y order driven by the interaction in the local p-orbitals. We compare our observations with a multi-band Hubbard model and find excellent quantitative agreement

Wildlife-livestock interactions and risk areas for cross-species spread of bovine tuberculosis

The transmission of diseases between livestock and wildlife can be a hindrance to effective disease control. Maintenance hosts and contact rates should be explored to further understand the transmission dynamics at the wildlife-livestock interface. Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been shown to have wildlife maintenance hosts and has been confirmed as present in the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Queen Elizabeth National Park (QENP) in Uganda since the 1960s. The first aim of this study was to explore the spatio-temporal spread of cattle illegally grazing within the QENP recorded by the Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) rangers in a wildlife crime database. Secondly, we aimed to quantify wildlife-livestock interactions and cattle movements, on the border of QENP, using a longitudinal questionnaire completed by 30 livestock owners. From this database, 426 cattle sightings were recorded within QENP in 8 years. Thirteen (3.1%) of these came within a 300 m–4 week space-time window of a buffalo herd, using the recorded GPS data. Livestock owners reported an average of 1.04 (95% CI 0.97–1.11) sightings of Uganda kob, waterbuck, buffalo or warthog per day over a 3-month period, with a rate of 0.22 (95% CI 0.20–0.25) sightings of buffalo per farmer per day. Reports placed 85.3% of the ungulate sightings and 88.0% of the buffalo sightings as further than 50 m away. Ungulate sightings were more likely to be closer to cattle at the homestead (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.6) compared with the grazing area. Each cattle herd mixed with an average of five other cattle herds at both the communal grazing and watering points on a daily basis. Although wildlife and cattle regularly shared grazing and watering areas, they seldom came into contact close enough for aerosol transmission. Between species infection transmission is therefore likely to be by indirect or non-respiratory routes, which is suspected to be an infrequent mechanism of transmission of BTB. Occasional cross-species spillover of infection is possible, and the interaction of multiple wildlife species needs further investigation. Controlling the interface between wildlife and cattle in a situation where eradication is not being considered may have little impact on BTB disease control in cattle